Aside from the outcome of the county comptroller’’s race, which will likely pit the well funded incumbent Nancy Naples (R) against Jeff Swiatek (D), the key to the way Erie County government will operate during the last two years of the Republican County Executive Joel Giambra’’s term, and maybe far beyond it, is who has control of the 17 member legislature. Currently, the legislature is more or less controlled by its chairman, Chuck Swanick (D-Kenmore) who typically enjoys a slim plurality- 9-8 - in polarized and partisan voting. Giambra is hoping to change that, and has vowed to support candidates who will oppose Swanick supporters.
After the next election, there are four possible scenarios:
1. Giambra may win big: The Republican Comptroller (Naples) is reelected and, if he wins one or two seats in the legislature –– Giambra secures defacto control of that body.
2. Status quo: Giambra may have what he has now: a Republican comptroller (Naples) and Swanick with control (slight or otherwise) of the legislature.
3. Crisscross: Swiatek wins as comptroller, but Giambra takes control of the legislature.
4. Giambra loses big: Swiatek beats Naples, and Swanick keeps control of the legislature.
The most important aspect for Giambra is the legislature, and reportedly, Giambra may invest his own money to support candidates who support his agenda. Three types of candidates, therefore, are likely in the upcoming elections: Democrats, Republicans, and, as Democratic Party boss Steve Pigeon calls them, members of "the Party of Joel," aka "Giambracrats." These "Giambracrats" are Democrats by affiliation, but aligned with the Republican Giambra. Currently, two of the legislature’’s Democrats are Giambracrats -- Greg Olma (D-Buffalo) and Al Debenedetti, (D-Buffalo).
Swanick, and party boss Pigeon will not be idle either. The Democrats will likely be fielding a candidate against Olma and Debenedetti, as well as opponents for most incumbent Republicans. Voters should see a number of exciting legislative races in 2001. And, unlike the 1999 election, when all 17 incumbents were reelected, six of them without an opponent in the general election, we expect to see almost everyone facing opposition, and some potentially vulnerable ones facing strong primaries. Expect some incumbents to be defeated in 2001.
Since reapportionment - which will change the boundaries of the districts, based on the 2000 census - will not be completed until May - we do not yet know how reapportioned districts will be configured, hence it may be late April or May before we know who will be running against who. However, some names are surfacing:
Pauley vs Hasiotos or Ward
Amherst Democratic Town Chairman Dennis Ward has been cited as a potential candidate to take on 14th District County Legislator Bill Pauley (R- Amherst) a Republican whose district includes part of Tonawanda. Pauley is the sole Republican who sides with Swanick, and hence provides the critical ninth vote for Swanick . Says Pauley, "(Giambra’’s allies) are spreading the word that I’’m a Democrat, or that I am obstructing Giambra’’s program for lower taxes and that is completely false." Pauley points to the fact that he led the charge on tax cutting and supported regionalism, prior to Giambra’’s election.
George Hasiotis, a noted businessman, and former county water authority commissioner, has also expressed interest in running.
MESI VS MARINELLI?
The Giambra forces, led by Amherst Chamber of Commerce President Colleen DiPirro, are said to be trying to lure professional boxer, Baby Joe Mesi to run against County legislator Lynn Marinelli (D-Tonawanda) who aligns, typically, with Swanick. Sources say, however, that Pigeon/Swanick will prevail, and that Mesi will run instead against Al DeBenedetti (D-Buffalo),who supports Giambra.
Challengers for Swanick?
Joe Shiah (R) is expected to run again, against Swanick. He was walloped by Swanick in 1999. But hopes to cash in on Giambra’’s popularity and the perception that Swanick is the main obstacle to Giambra’’s initiatives.
Democrat Patricia Ryan-Dudek is also reportedly contemplating a primary challenge to Swanick, and may utilize a similar platform.
Swanick needs to articulate that he is not an obstructionist but rather the sole watchdog of a county executive who is both cutting taxes and at times, seemingly, increasing spending. Giambra inherited a huge surplus from former county executive Dennis Gorski (D)- which is being spent as we speak, and a large long term payout of a tobacco settlement, which was sold, for ready and immediate cash - to be spent by Giambra.
In spite of the populist advantage that Giambra presents for candidates he supports, because of reapportionment, controlled by Democrats, the dynamics of party enrollment, race, ethnicity, and other factors, including the strong challenges Republicans will face this year, Swanick may come out stronger in 2002, thus paving the way for Swanick versus Giambra for County Executive in 2003.
