Illuzzi letter

When Tuesday comes, the Swiatek - Naples race will be far closer than the recent Goldhaber poll indicated. Joel Giambra told me he thinks Naples will win by 8 points.

I'm not so sure.

Steve Casey, at Democratic headquarters, said they just concluded a poll Wednesday night that shows the candidates are within the margin of error: Naples 38% to Swiatek 36%.

"Anytime you have an incumbent under 50% you're happy. When it is under 40% you're thrilled." he said, "if we get out the vote, Swiatek is going to win."

And Swiatek has a big edge in the booth; he has five lines: Democrat, Independence, Conservative, Green, and Working Family, to Naples two - Republican, and a line she created herself called "Financial Watchdog".

An edge in the booth is not easily reflected in telephone polls, where two names are mentioned on the phone, and voters are asked which they will choose. In the booth, however, the voter will see Naples name at top of the machine, and then Swiatek's name five times almost in a row before finding Naples name again (Watchdog Line), if he cares and is able to crouch quite low.

Consider also that in Swiatek's favor is the 100,000 voter plurality of Democrats in Erie county, and the large number of "detached" voters in every election. A "detached" voter is not necessarily one who votes by party affiliation, but one who does not care about the race at all, and who knows practically none of the issues or even, sometimes, the candidates names. A detached voter does not pretend to be up on the issues. Sometimes their voting - once alone in the booth - appears as a kind of mysticism. Alone in the booth, the august nature of the act of voting merges with their lack of knowledge about the candidates. The row number might appeal, or the first letter in someone's name, or some candidate might have a similar first name to someone they once knew. They might remember a sign or a picture of a pretty face. They go into the booth sometimes and don't know who the candidates are. So sometimes they vote by gender, sometimes by ethnicity. Sometimes by whimsey. Sometimes they say a prayer and close their eyes and pick. In an effort to do the right thing sometimes they decide by "eenie meenie miney moe." The detached voter often goes along with the advantage in the booth and that may swing the election to Swiatek. If five parties nominated him, there might be a very good reason, one might conclude.

Naples, however, should not be ruled out. Both polls said she is ahead. She has the advantage of incumbency, greater name recognition, the support of the popular Giambra; she has a captivating style, a gracious demeanor, physical attractiveness, (as her ubiquitous signs amply reveal) and more cash than Swiatek to invest.

If Swiatek were to win, however, it should be noted early that this writer predicts that it will be possible for Giambra to work well with him. Swiatek is well known as a diplomatic man. In Cheektowaga, where he is a councilman, his name is almost axiomatic of a guy who can stick to issues and avoid personal politics. He is one of the rare few who is friendly with both factions of the deeply divided Cheektowaga town board, led by Supervisor Dennis Grabyrszak on the one side, and on the other by Bill Rogowski. If he were to win, Swiatek might wind up being an excellent fiscal counselor, friend, philosopher, and guide for the county executive and, of course, for the county as a whole. He might strengthen Giambra overall, while still working well with either a Republican or Democrat controlled legislature. At 34 years old, Swiatek exudes a quiet dignity and an air of calmness that belies his age and inspires confidence. The silver (I mean grey) threads among the black help give him the appearance of a seasoned, polished and mature man - which in fact he is.

But Nancy Naples is also extremely able. Even if Giambra were to win total control of the legislature, Naples, I believe, would act responsibly, both fiscally and politically, and, in my opinion, thus far she has. Notwithstanding a little puffing on the one side and criticism of her on the other, Naples service to the county has been exemplary, not only with Gorski, but with Giambra as well. Her record is however the campaign issue - characterized alternately and diametrically oppositely by her and her opponent.

This election however is not entirely about Naples record. Educated voters need to decide frankly whether they want a fiscal watchdog for the county executive, who is a member of the opposite party. In a sense, for the educated voter, this race is, in some respects, a mid -term referendum on Joel Giambra.

To prognosticate, which is always bravado, if not downright foolish: I predict this race will be within the margin of error. If Tuesday is cold and rainy, I suspect the Republican Naples wins. If balmy and bright, the next comptroller of Erie County will be Jeff Swiatek.