The NY state legislature will likely pass a reapportionment plan for both the assembly and the senate this spring, in time for candidates to circulate petitions. A single plan must pass both houses. Each house's majority will pass its own plan, then try to get the other body's majority and the Governor to agree.
In the Assembly, there is a large Democratic plurality of almost 40 seats; in the Senate there are 35 Republicans and 24 Democrats (and two vacancies). The Republicans know that a mere eleven seats separate them from their majority. If they can eliminate Democrats or change boundaries to preserve and increase the chances of Republican representation, it behooves them, politically, to do it. In the Assembly Democrats will likely be doing the same.
One of those Senate districts which may change significantly is the smallest in population, with 270,000, and is the 57th district, which includes three fourths of Buffalo, Grand Island, the City of Tonawanda, and most of Niagara Falls. 61 senate districts in NY mean an average of 310,000 people each. If no districts are cut, reapportionment is going to give the 57th, 40,000 more people. The 57th today is served by Byron Brown, and, in the last 22 years, was by some familiar names: Al Coppola, Anthony Nanula, Tony Masiello, and Joe Torriello, all Democrats.
There are 79,600 Democrats and 14,400 Republicans in the district.
And there are three reasons why the 57th might be treated a little differently than other Democratic districts during reapportionment:
1. Brown is the only Senator who lives in Buffalo.
2. He is the only African-American Senator outside NY city, (by the way, the first in state history)
3. He is the only African American representing a district which has a white majority (The plurality is about 65-35) also a first in NY state history.
Senator George Maziarz, (R), wants his district to include all of Niagara County, which would take Niagara Falls out of the 57th. Maziarz explains that it is not likely to happen.
"Keeping the 57th with a large African-American population and an African-American Senator will help the Republican plan pass muster with the courts," Maziarz said. "I think they probably won't give me all of Niagara County. But, we'll have to wait and see."
Senator William Stachowski (D) agrees that race may play a role in the process.
"The Republicans reapportionment plan will be subject to court challenge," he said "... If they can say that they've created an African-American district in Western New York, that will help them to sell their plan. That's probably the reason why that district was drawn to include both the City of Buffalo and Niagara Falls originally. They wanted to get as many African-Americans in the same district. It seems to work very well for both communities and I don't think they'll want to change that."
Still, the Republicans might try to merge Brown and Stachowski into the same district, and hence, hopefully, lose one Democrat.
"Sure they can stick Byron and myself in the same district," said Stachowski, "but that is going to leave about 140,000 Democratic voters in Cheektowaga and surrounding areas that they would have to put in someone else's district. There would be nothing to prevent me from moving into that
new district with all those Democratic voters and running there."
The senior member of the Western New York Albany delegation, and the senior Senator from upstate NY, Senator Dale Volker. (R) has influence on reapportionment for WNY.
He agreed the 57th would not be cut and would likely keep Niagara Falls."Look, no one wants to stick it to Senator Brown," Volker said "... He's a nice young man and we're going to help him if we can. ... I don't think his district is in any particular trouble."
Senator Mary Lou Rath (R) agreed that race helps Brown.
"You can't have a reapportionment plan which divides communities because it's illegal and such a plan will never get past the courts. The courts will strike it down," Rath said. "So you have to keep communities together as much as you possibly can."
Regardless of how his district is changed, or even if it were eliminated, Brown said he plans to run this year.
"I don't worry about reapportionment because it's something I don't control," Brown said, "I do know this. I'm going to be running for reelection to the Senate in some district next fall no matter how the lines are drawn."
Senator Richard Dollinger{D} Rochester, a member of the Legistative Task Force on Demographics and Reapportionment, believes Brown is safe from political gamesmanship since he is considered "a real up-and-comer" by Republicans and Democrats alike. He has "tremendous cross-over appeal and (is) someone the Republicans will not want to run against," Dollinger said.
Maurice Garner, founder of Grassroots, an African American political activist organization in Buffalo, and a Brown supporter, said Brown proves a black can win in a white majority district. "Senator Brown would be very electable in any event," said Garner.
PIGEON ADDS HIS COMMENTS
US Supreme Court decisions might make it harder for Republicans to preserve their majority, said Erie County Democratic Party Chairman G. Steven Pigeon - one more reason to leave Brown alone.
"There are two million more Democrats in the State of New York," said Pigeon "It's going to be hard for them to ... follow the Court's dictates. Race can be a factor, but not the only one in drawing lines,"
He said. One Senate district runs from Harlem to Mount Vernon with a thin line between, designed to put African-Americans in the same district, Pigeon said."That way they wouldn't be in other, more competitive districts which the Republicans were hoping to win."
If there are battle (gerrymandering) lines to be drawn elsewhere on mainly racial lines, the Republicans may be well advised to leave the 57th and Byron Brown pretty much alone, just merely expand his district, adding 40,000 expanding mainly east.
After all, Republicans hold a slim majority, in spite of a severe statewide registered voter minority. Leaving all the WNY African Americans who are mainly Democrats all in one district makes eminent political sense.
